Description: Presented at Living to 100 symposium, January 2011. This paper adapts New Zealand Maori and non-Maori population mortality data to reflect differences in socio-economic status. This adapted data is used as a basis to explore the implications of differential mortality in assessing the equity of increase in the pension age of eligibility.

Description: Presented at the Living to 100 Symposium, January 2011. In India, the prevalence of lifestyle diseases such as diabetes and cardiovascular diseases has been increasing tremendously. This spurt of diseases and the resultant morbidity is severely affecting the quality of life of the elderly. The problem is compounded by a medical and health care infrastructure which is inadequate to meet the challenge. This paper analyzes and estimates, using actuarial tools, the effect on the economy with particular focus on the present and future elderly segment of the population, identifies opportunities for insurers to address the situation, and suggests remedial measures to deal with the situation. Medico-actuarial studies in this area will also be covered.

Description: There are strong interactions between the population of Mexico and the Mexican-origin population in the United States MOP. The main purpose of this paper is the identification of relationships from the demographic and social security perspectives.

Description: This paper provides an overview of those cognitive biases most often responsible for flawed risk assessments and provides practical techniques to mitigate them. Through a combination of mathematical rigor, case study, metaphor, and logic, the author highlights systematic errors in our thinking about risk and provides ways to avoid them.

Description: Abstract: Despite a considerable accumulation of empirical and theoretical evidence in the last two decades in favor of a slowdown in the rate of mortality increase with age, the veracity of mortality deceleration observed at very old ages among humans was recently called into question on the basis of: (1) inaccurate data, (2) invalid assumptions, and/or (3) inadequate mixture of birth cohorts with different mortality experiences. In this article, we use a highly reliable set of individual-level data on French-Canadians centenarians born between 1870 and 1896 and who died between 1970 and 2009 to compute new estimates of the age-trajectory of mortality at ages 100 and over. Our results suggest that the rate of mortality increase with age tends to slow down at very old ages, even when special care is taken to avoid issues (1) to (3) outlined above.

Description: This paper addresses the allocation of solvency capital in multi- line financial businesses. Although this paper is uniformly applicable to financial enterprises of all types, the terminology in the paper is mainly that of insurance. The TailVaR risk measure is extended in a natural way to allocating capital to each of the business units. This method of allocation allocates capital in a way that is invariant over the method of decomposing the enterprise into business units. Analytic results are derived in the case of multivariate Normal risks. The key result of this paper is that the TailVaR-based proportional allocation of total required capital is identical to that based on mean-variance considerations analogous to the CAPM in the case of the multivariate Normaldistribution.

Description: This paper represents a brief progress report on research, being sponsored by the Casualty Actuarial Society CAS and the Society of Actuaries SOA, in the area of modeling of economic series. In particular, research is being undertaken to provide a foundation for the actuarial community’s modeling of a variety of economic variables, including interest rates, equity returns, inflation, unemployment rates, and real estate price levels. The specific objectives of this research are to provide a summary of the literature in the area of economic scenario modeling, identify data sources and methodologies in this area useful to the actuarial profession, and produce working software for economic modeling, including appropriate documentation, to be made available to the general actuarial community in order to allow actuaries to use and build upon this research.

Description: There are strong interactions between the population of Mexico and the Mexican-origin population in the United States MOP. The main purpose of this paper is the identification of relationships from the demographic and social security perspectives.

Description: Exploration of sources of volatility in retiree health valuations, noting how volatility arises and might be mitigated, with discussion of valuation parameters more problematic for retiree health benefits than for pensions. Three significant influences on retiree health valuation volatility are covered-- changes in benefit level, fluctuations in cost level, and alterations in eligibility for, or duration of, benefit – and attention focused on the last two. Specific conclusions result in recommendations, which are supported by practical examples contrasting volatile measurement results with those likely from the recommended practices. Theoretical discussion includes health claim variation, health trend usage, financial economics, option pricing, discount rates, and deterministic vs. stochastic modeling.

Description: This paper describes a current approach to capital allocation, tail contribution analysis TCA, and then compares it to an alternate method called economic profit analysis, EPA. The advantages of EPA over TCA are then outlined. From 2006 Enterprise risk Management Symposium, M-AS06-1.